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Bodog has just released their draft-adjusted NFL Super Bowl odds for the 2006 installment of the big game, and I'm here to tell you who's a bargain, and who's a bust. As expected, the Patriots are one of the odds-on favorites to repeat as Super Bowl Champions at 6-1 (3-1 to win the AFC), despite losing both of their coordinators, their best cornerback, linebacker, and No. 2 receiver, not to mention a lackluster draft that left many scratching their heads. It's just more testament to the power of the Belichick/Pioli Kool-Aid.
Slightly ahead of New England, at 11-2 (2-1 to win the NFC), are the Philadelphia Eagles. This is a scary number for me, simply because Philadelphia lost far more than they added this off-season. That doesn't even take into account the possible loss of a pouting Terrell Owens, not to mention the inevitable strained relationship between Owens and Donovan McNabb. Philadelphia is right at the top of my 'over-rated' list. I don't see any way for them to make it back to the Super Bowl, let alone win it.
Right behind the Eagles, at 13-2 (4-1 AFC) current NFL Super Bowl odds, are the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are looking to write the final chapter in their offensive odyssey; unfortunately, it looks more like the same old story: Manning to Harrison, Manning to Wayne, Manning to Stokley, Manning to the ball-boy, Manning to just about anybody with two functional hands. Too bad Manning can't play defense, and neither can anyone else with a horseshoe on his helmet.
Back to the picks. Last year, the Detroit Lions were everyone's 'sleeper' to win the weak NFC. Naturally, they slept through the season and ended up with yet another top-10 pick, and yet another unproven, marquee wide receiver who will fight for his touches. With current NFLK Super Bowl odds of 38-1 (13-1 NFC), I'd say the Lions are still getting too much respect. Don't waste your time, money, or sanity.
Another team getting much more respect than they deserve is the Oakland Raiders. Sure, they added Randy Moss and a great cover cornerback in Fabian Washington. What they didn't do was address their ridiculously bad running game or the situation at quarterback. Kerry Collins as your starting QB is a very bad situation. The second-round pick of CB Stanford Routt (who?!) was poorly spent on a developmental project that probably won't contribute much more to the team other than track-star speed. And don't forget, they still need to find a way to unload Charles Woodson. Yet somehow, Oakland is getting 15-1 (12-1). You figure it out.
If you're looking for a relative bargain pick, take a peek at Baltimore. They're listed at 18-1 (10-1) right now, despite having a top five RB (once he gets out of jail), a ridiculously good offensive line and one of the five best defenses in the league. Plus, they added one of the best receivers in the draft in Mark Clayton (an absolute steal at No. 22 overall). Now the only question is, can Kyle Boller sustain the flashes of brilliance he displayed in a few scattered games last season, or will the Ravens be stuck waiting for a shot to trade up for Matt Leinart next season?
A much better bet, however, is the San Diego Chargers at 30/1. How this team is still not getting respect is amazing to me. They came within one Marty Schottenheimer brain freeze of advancing in the playoffs for the first time in 10 years. Last season, I said that they were the team I most feared as a Patriots fan. This year - same thing. They got better in the draft picking up two first-round defensive upgrades (Shawne Merriman's mini-camp controversy notwithstanding) and a solid second round wide receiver. Keeping Keenan McCardell and adding Bhawoh Jue from Green Bay addressed two big needs for the team -- wide receiver and defensive backfield. And don't forget, they already have the best running-back in the game. 30-1 (14-1) is just a reflection of 20+ years of Chargers' history - get in on it while you can.
On the NFC side, there are two teams that just aren't getting the respect they deserve with these NFL Super Bowl odds, which means good news for those of you who, like me, actually enjoy getting a nice return on your investments.
Minnesota has had probably the best off-season of any NFL team, if you look past Mike Tice's ticket-scalping snafu. They unloaded a head case wide receiver, then used the draft pick they got in return to take a No. 1 receiver to replace him (although letting Mike Williams fall to another NFC North team might haunt them, twice a year, for the next decade). The Vikings now have the best defensive backfield in the NFL, one of the best receiving corps with Troy Williamson joining Nate Burleson and Kelly Campbell; all underrated receivers who can flat out catch and run, and a three-headed monster at running-back that, when firing on all cylinders, can't be stopped. The only thing that worries me is their relative inability to stop the run, but I'm willing to look past that if it means getting 15-1 and 8-1 on my wager.
Finally, I'm going to go out on a limb. Sure, I could take the safe pick and say Atlanta at 18-1 (9-1), or St. Louis at a bargain basement 40-1 (16-1). But I'm going for the Hail Mary here and saying.
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Arizona. I'll pause for laughter. Hopefully you haven't closed the Internet window yet. OK, ready?
The have a decent quarterback in Josh McCown, and a solid backup if he falters in Kurt Warner. They have two stud wide receivers in Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. They have a very good coach in Dennis Green. And although Emmitt Smith is done, they replaced him nicely through the draft by grabbing JJ Arrington in the second round.
On defense, they grabbed the best cornerback in the draft by nailing Antrel Rolle at No. 8 overall, and another solid corner in Eric Green in the third round. They signed big upgrades in Orlando Huff at LB, Robert Griffith at CB, and Oliver Ross at offensive tackle. And in the NFC West, they've got a solid shot at taking the division. Who else is going to grab it; the 49ers?
I'm not saying the Cardinals are winning the Super Bowl this season. I am saying that if you're looking for a nice spot to drop a small bet and get a big return, Arizona at 75-1 (25-1) might be the direction you want to turn.
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Otherwise, just play it safe. New England over Minnesota, 27-21.
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