How To Make Smart Sports Bets
- How To Make Smart Bets
- How To Make Smart Sports Bets
- How To Make Smart Sports Bets
- How To Make Smart Sports Bets Without
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Sports betting should always be fun to some extent, even if your ultimate goal is to make money. Avoid sports betting becoming more of a chore than a choice by taking regular breaks. This will help to keep it enjoyable, and coming back with fresh perspective can help with making good decisions too.
It’s not enough to make smart bets — you also have to have solid money management principles. So without further ado, I present the most common mistakes made by sports bettors. 1) Changing Unit Size. Start with a sensible betting bankroll. If you want to make money, you need to start with a betting bankroll capable of absorbing losses. If you're going to bet in units, with an average bet of 1 unit, we would recommend a bankroll of at least 50 units. Log into your preferred account (either on the mobile site or mobile app). Click on the sport you want to bet on. Click on the game you want to bet on. Navigate to the site’s “Bet Slip”. 8 Steps process to build a betting model and start winning in Sports Betting. Training in Google Sheets: We will create simple model in Google Sheets and calculate winning percentages, odds and the value +much more including FREE GIFTS and DOWNLOADABLE template for attending!
The big board at any Vegas sports book is a sight to behold. A slick cross between the New York Stock Exchange and a McDonald’s walk-up menu, the boards are updated moment to moment and bet to bet, giving a sports gambler all the data he needs to make a smart bet.
These boards are copied and pasted into the newspapers or shrunk to fit computer screens and smartphone apps but nothing measures up to the real thing. Hundreds of games, thousands of bets. All listed above you.
The big boards in Vegas tell us many things. The favorites. The underdogs. The payout. Where the money is. Knowing how to read Vegas Odds is important to every gambler not just to place a bet, obviously, but to place a smart bet. And that’s all good gamblers want to do. They want to make smart bets, win 60-70 percent of the time, and move on to the next bet.
But how do the big boards in Vegas work? What are they telling us? And what can we derive from them? It is just as important to know the odds you’re gambling with as it is to know the sport you’re gambling on. Making a smart bet is the goal. And smart gamblers use all the information available in order to do so.
For a brilliant summary for reading Vegas Odds 101, listen to our Sports and Vegas Odds Podcast episode where Ryan breaks it all down for you:
American Odds
Vegas odds are often referred to as “American Odds” because Americans always have to be different. We ignore the metric system. We call football, soccer. We drive on the wrong side of the road. Why would sports gambling be any different?
American odds are presented in the form of a $100 bet. They’ll indicate the amount you need to wager to win $100 or the amount you’ll win if you bet $100. So, for a favorite, the odds will begin with a minus (-) sign. This is the amount you need to bet in order to win $100.
On the other hand, the underdog’s odds will begin with a plus (+) sign. This is the amount you will receive if you were to bet $100. This does not mean you have to bet $100. Or mean that you can only bet as much as $100. See, Americans have to be different. Hang in there because we have some examples forthcoming.
These odds will come into play a few ways depending on the type of bet you place. The moneyline, the point spread, and the totals (over/under) are all bets available on the board. Let’s look at how to read them in Vegas with the odds.
The Moneyline
Simply put, a bet on the moneyline is an odds bet. It’s where “American odds” can easily be seen. With a moneyline bet you’re simply picking the winner and the payout is determined by the odds.
Obviously, a bet on the favorite is going to pay out less than a bet on the underdog. Let’s look at an example of a moneyline bet with an NBA game and how it would appear in Vegas. The Pacers/Cavs line.
- Indiana Pacers +350
- Cleveland Cavaliers -440
The Pacers are the underdog on the moneyline at +350. The Cavs are the favorites on the moneyline with -440. This means a $100 bet on the Pacers to win pays $350. And that you would have to wager $440 on the Cavs to win $100. This ratio holds true for a wager of any amount. A $10 bet on the Pacers pays $35 while a $10 bet on the Cavs pays $2.27. So on and so forth.
The Point Spread
The most common and popular of sports bets is the point spread. As simply as we can put it, the point spread is the number the oddsmakers use to handicap the favorites to even-up the final score of the game. This in turn sparks more interest, which leads to more bets, which brings in more money. Again, the Pacers/Cavs line.
- Indiana Pacers +8 -110
- Cleveland Cavaliers -8 -110
First the -8. As noted, the Cavs are the favorites so they are giving points (8) to even up the final score. In order for the Cavs to win the bet and cover the point spread, they’d have to win by nine or more. If the Pacers stay within seven points, the Cavs fail to cover the eight points and lose the bet. If the Cavs win by eight points, it’s a “push” or a tie and all bets are returned.
Now the (-110). This number is the odds a bet on the point spread will pay out. Just like on the moneyline, since the Cavs are the favorites, you’ll have to bet $110 to win $100. You’ll notice a favorite covering the spread pays out much better than a favorite on the moneyline. You’ll also notice the favorite and the underdog have the same payouts with the point spread. This is what makes playing the point spread so popular.
Some teams are evenly matched and there isn’t a point spread at all. This would be a “pick’em” or “pk” on the big board. And the odds on the moneyline would match as well. These are “EVEN” odds. When playing the point spread the payout number will vary. -110 is about industry standard but you’ll notice -105’s, -115’s, and even as high as -125’s on point spread bets at times. More on this later but it is important to note these variations.
Totals
The totals is a bet on the total number of points (or runs or goals) scored in the game. The oddsmakers will set the number and bets are placed on whether or not the total score is OVER or UNDER that number. The number appears on the big board next to the underdog like so:
- Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers 212.5 -110
The number set for this game is 212.5. Since the .5 has eliminated the chance of a push, an OVER bet will win if the total score is 213 or higher. An UNDER bet pays if the total score is 212 or lower. And, again, the payout for a win is -110.
Totals bets are seen as something of a sucker’s bet. Despite your opinion on the matter, we have to admit they are a little strange. You are wagering on what the total score will be. Not picking a winner. Picking a score.
So, it’s different than a normal who’s-going-to-win-the-game-and-by
-how-much kind of bet. However, this number is providing the gambler more information about how the oddsmakers feel about the game and that is important when making a smart bet.
Placing a Wager
The other set of numbers you will see on the big board are the rotation numbers. These are numbers assigned to teams so the sports book can easily distinguish one for the other. They appear to the left of the teams in a game on the big board as such:
- 101 Indiana Pacers +350 212.5
- 102 Cleveland Cavaliers -440 -8(-110)
These numbers simply help the sports book as well as the gambler keep track of the bet. Listed on the big board are dozens of sports, hundreds of teams and thousands of bets that can be played. It’s a good idea to keep them as organized as possible. There are at least six professional teams in New York by itself after all. Like the horses’ numbers at the track, rotation numbers just cut down on the confusion when placing a bet.
“Give me New York -220 on the moneyline for $50.”
“Which New York, dumb-dumb…”
“Sorry, 303. I’m an idiot”
“Yes, you are.”
Don’t be that guy. This is the proper way to lay a bet in Vegas. Rotation Number, Type of Bet, Amount of Wager. Everyone appreciates a well placed bet and no one likes that guy…
Reading the Big Board
Now that we know how to read Vegas Odds, we need to learn what the Vegas odds mean… That is, what are these numbers telling us in the context of the game we want to wager on. We have studied the teams, we know the rosters. What can the lines tell us to make our bet a smart bet?
Once a game is scheduled and it’s odds are posted, the bets are going to start coming in. Now, it’s in the sports book’s best interest to keep the bets as even as possible. This is why oddsmakers give you a pay out at -110.
Understanding the Vig or Juice
That’s a $110 dollar bet to win $100. Take the favorite and give the points. You’re paid out at -110. Take the underdog and get the points. You’re paid out at -110. OVER or UNDER the same. -110. This is the industry standard and goes back to the mob-only days of oddsmaking.
Where does that $10 bucks go you ask? Well, that $10 bucks on a $100 bet is the “vig” or “juice.” It’s the price for laying a bet. A little bit extra the oddsmaker gets to keep for fronting the wager.
Keeping the bets as even as they can on either side insures their money. Collect from the losers and short change the winners. It’s a brilliant business model only the mob could come up with and only Vegas would still employ.
Now, most betting lines will just give it to you straight. The favorite pays this much, you get this many points, the total is this. What we are looking for are the variations. We can ascertain plenty of valuable intel from these variations.
Why is the payout on this game -115? And why is the payout on this game EVEN? Why is the moneyline different from yesterday? And why is the point spread moving up? The devil is in the details.
Watch As The Point Spreads Move
The most obvious variation is the movement of the point spread. As the bets start coming in, the oddsmakers track which team is receiving most of the betting action. The point spread will move because the oddsmakers will change the line to try to even up the sides. Remember, they want just as many people on one side of a bet as on the other.
More people are taking the Cavs giving the eight points? Raise the point spread to nine. All of a sudden, more bets will come in for the Pacers getting the nine points. Oddsmakers can do the same with the moneyline as well as the total line. And for the same reasons.
But what does this information tell us? The line has moved up even more and now the Cavs are -10 point favorites. This means, despite the oddsmakers best efforts, more wagers have been placed on the Cavs than on the Pacers.
Smart Bettors Know Where The Action Is
Knowing where the money is can help you make a smart bet. One theory is the The-House-Always-Wins-Rule. Basically, this theory suggests you bet against everyone else and with the house because the house always wins. If more people take the favorite, the points they are giving went up and you should take the underdog.
If more people are picking the underdog, the points they are receiving have gone down and you take the favorite. It makes sense in theory but maybe not in practice. Remember, the oddsmakers want the sides to be even.
They aren’t in the business of placing their own opposing bets. What is important is knowing how everyone else is betting and the knowledge that a large segment of the gambling population shares your opinion.
Or if you think the gambling population is foolish, well, you know what to do. However you feel, keep an eye on how the line moves. It may help you make a bet you wouldn’t have or avoid a bet you were going to make.
A Close Look at the Payouts
The payouts on the point spread can vary as well. That standard -110 will turn into -105’s or EVEN’s. Or go the other way to -115’s, -120’s, or -125’s. What is the reason for these variations? It’s a lot like moving the point spread.
The oddsmakers want to even up the bet. There’s only so many points a bookie is going to give. Offering a little more here or a little less there on the payout may be enough to influence the betting action. However, you can tell where the oddsmakers are hedging with these numbers.
If the payout gets better than -110, the oddsmakers have the sides even up, love the point spread and want you to bet it and lose. If the payout gets worse than -110, the oddsmakers know they have a bad number and want to cut their losses.
Vegas Wants You To Gamble – Be Smart
Making smart bets is the name of the game. The only way to make smart bets is to gather as much information as possible and master how to read Vegas Odds. Get to know every bet as well as you know every team. Get to know all the odds as well as you know every player.
Otherwise, you’re just playing the lotto. Remember, Vegas wants you to gamble. It’s going to give you all the information it can in order to gamble. It’s up to you to use it.
Test your knowledge on some small starter bets. We’d recommend any of the following for players outside Las Vegas but there are plenty of good options for US players (just make sure it’s not illegal in your state):
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Betting on the NFL isn’t necessarily easy, but making smarter bets is always possible for those motivated to learn a bit of new strategy.
Try these nine thoughtful tips when wagering at online football betting sites and watch your bankroll grow.
1. Bet With Your Head, Not Your Heart
It may sound obvious, but avoiding emotion when wagering remains a challenge for many bettors. We all have our personal biases. Whether it’s a favorite team or one we despise, putting aside these preferences isn’t easy.
But here’s the thing: becoming more objective towards NFL betting online is literally the easiest way to make smarter bets. It doesn’t require a detailed strategy on mathematical analysis, it just requires common sense.
Cheering on your favorite team (at least) 16 times per year is a lot of fun, but losing money in the process is not. To become a smarter bettor, be aware of your biases and try to avoid decisions based solely on favoritism.
2. Pay Attention to Where the Game Is Played
Home-field advantage matters, and it matters more at certain stadiums. For example, the New England Patriots, went 42-6 straight-up (32-14-2 ATS) at home from 2014-2018. The Seahawks also perform exceptionally well in Seattle: they are 92-31 at home since 2003.
But they’re not the only two teams with such an advantage. Do your research by comparing each team’s home vs. away record when handicapping for home team advantage.
West Coast teams traveling to the Eastern Time Zone tend to have less difficulty overcoming the time change, but East Coast teams are at an inherent disadvantage when forced to play on the Pacific Coast, three hours later than they’re used to.
There are also teams who don’t travel well. From 2014-2018 (a five-season span), the San Francisco 49ers were a terrible 9-31 on the road, third-worst in the league. They weren’t much better against the spread, going 16-22-2 (fourth-worst in the NFL). The Texans also struggled to cover the spread on the road in 2016, posting a 2-6 record ATS.
Knowing where and when the teams played the previous week is also an important factor to consider. Some teams suffer from real disadvantages. West Coast teams traveling to the Eastern Time Zone tend to have less difficulty overcoming the time change, but East Coast teams are at an inherent disadvantage when forced to play on the Pacific Coast, three hours later than they’re used to.
Lastly, certain dome (indoor) teams can struggle to perform outdoors. For example, Drew Brees’ passer rating drops from 102.5 in a dome to 90.3 when playing outdoors. And this is all extremely useful information for bettors.
3. Know the Individual Matchups
Football is often referred to as the ultimate team sport, but there are certain one-on-one matchups that can dramatically affect the outcome of a game.
For example, a weak offensive tackle should not be expected to perform well against the premier edge-rushers in the league. Pay attention to major skill discrepancies between players who will be going head-to-head.
Coaches are perhaps the most significant head-to-head matchups that bettors should consider. Every coach uses recurring strategies that fare very well against some opponents and flop against others. Coaches get to know each other’s approaches to the game, and some are better at responding to these strategic considerations.
A great example of this is Tom Coughlin and Bill Belichick. The Patriots have been dominant since Belichick has been steering the ship, but he was 2-5 when coaching against Coughlin following the 2018 season.
How To Make Smart Bets
4. Know More than Just the Trends
When it comes to betting on NFL games, following the trends isn’t a bad idea — patterns sometimes provide valuable information. For example, from 2010 to 2018, the Bears went 12-5 ATS when coming off a bye week, while the 49ers, on the other hand, were just 5-11 ATS in that same time frame.
The sharpest bettors always look at the context behind the numbers when evaluating statistical trends.
How To Make Smart Sports Bets
Noticing that a team just scored 49 points the previous week doesn’t necessarily mean that their offense is firing on all cylinders. Go back and look at how all the points were scored. Maybe a defensive back fell down to allow a long touchdown pass. Perhaps the defense scored a couple of those touchdowns. Maybe they were just playing the Browns.
The sharpest bettors always look at the context behind the numbers.
5. Check the Injury Reports
As we mentioned, football is the ultimate team game, and small changes can throw off the entire unit. Make sure you know which players have missed practice during the week, what their status is for the upcoming game, and what role they play on the team.
Team injury reports can be a little vague, so it’s always a good idea to check the Twitter accounts of beat-writers for each team. Often, they will provide a little more detail.
6. Take Caution with Divisional Matchups
Teams that play each other twice per season get to know each other very well, and even bad teams tend to dig a little deeper when they are battling a division rival.
Looking to 2016, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Chicago Bears, and San Francisco 49ers were three of the bottom-four teams in the NFL, but they all posted a 4-2 record ATS within their respective divisions.
Even though one team may appear superior on paper, divisional matchups are often much closer than anticipated. This makes the great choices to bet on the NFL point spread, but they can be risky choices on the moneyline.
7. Don’t Fall in Love with Value
Betting the underdog on the moneyline can certainly pay off, but you need to consider why long odds are so long in the first place. Make sure you have very specific reasons and logic behind taking a +800 underdog on the moneyline, because you can be sure the sportsbook used reason and logic to set that moneyline in the first place.
We strongly recommend limiting parlays and teasers to 2-5 events when betting on the NFL.
You also need to be careful when constructing parlays and teasers. Don’t load them up with too many events. NFL teams are generally closely-matched compared to other sports, and it’s far too difficult to correctly predict the outcome of more than a handful of games. We strongly recommend limiting parlays and teasers to 2-5 events.
8. Monitor the Lines Throughout the Week
Monitoring the betting lines throughout the week is a big part of maximizing your chances. Some online books may provide more favorable NFL odds, and as the week progresses, you may find the odds change.
It’s important to keep in mind the influence of public perception here. Popular teams like the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, and New England Patriots will always have loyal supporters betting with their hearts. They’re often referred to as public teams, and it’s very likely they’ll be more heavily favored than the statistics suggest they should be.
If you’re planning on betting against the public, wait around and let emotional bettors drive the odds in your favor. Conversely, if you’re planning to bet on a public team, jumping on an early line is likely the best decision.
9. Diversify Your NFL Bets
How To Make Smart Sports Bets
There is success to be had betting on the moneyline, the spread, and game totals. But to maximize your success, it’s crucial to know all the alternative bets you can make.
Many sportsbooks will allow you to bet on alternate spreads or buy and sell points. Instead of settling for a -3.5 spread that makes you a little uncomfortable, you can opt for a -2.5 spread with a more modest payout.
Enjoy the Action this NFL Season
The strategies above are great to keep in mind while wagering this football season, but they’re only a start. In the end, finding success is all about putting in the time and effort to research your pick and manage your bankroll effectively.
How To Make Smart Sports Bets Without
If you’re looking to for more football action than the NFL can provide, open up your Saturdays and take a look at our intro to betting on college football for more helpful tips and tricks.