Betting Against the Public

If you take the OVER, it means you need the total points to be more than 220 to win your bet. If you take the UNDER, you need the collective score to be 219 or less to win your wager. PUSHES can also happen in OVER/UNDER betting if the shared points hit the exact number set by the oddsmakers. The bet might be over/under 165. If the total number of points scored by BOTH teams is over 165, the over bet wins. If the total is under 165, the under wins. Usually, the points will be in half points to prevent ties (Over/Under 165.5). Over/Under bets are a value provided for one of many statistical categories, including the Final Score, Individual Team Score, or any Player Stats. Outcomes are listed as either 'Over' or 'Under' the stat. Odds are then associated with outcomes, based on the stat and the provided total.

In many cases, the general public is clueless when it comes to betting the point spread or over/unders. There are a few reasons for that. First off, most people are too biased for sports betting. And others are far too influenced by ESPN and Fox Sports pundits that really don’t know what they’re talking about.

You’ll often notice that the public favors teams the mainstream media adores. In 2018, for example, Wisconsin (4-9), Michigan State (4-9), and USC (4-8) were among the teams with the worst records in college football against the spread. That’s because they were overhyped and, thus, were bet on heavily.

You then have to decide whether to bet on the over or the under. A wager on the over will win if the combined score from the two teams is 49 or over (e.g. Chargers 29, Colts 24). A wager on the under will win if the combined score from the two teams is 48 or less (e.g. Chargers 19, Colts 17).

When it comes to betting football totals, you should look to bet against the public, and that means mostly betting unders. Not always, but more often than not. The reason for that is most bettors like betting the over. Why? Because watching teams score a lot of points is more entertaining than a 14-13 defensive slugfest.

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When the public is hammering the over, the totals will eventually rise to a point that makes the under profitable.