• Geico 500 Results
• Predictions For Geico 500
• Nascar Geico 500 Predictions

• June 17
• by Micah Roberts
• VegasInsider.com

NASCAR Cup Series
GEICO 500 Picks

*Race moved to Monday after rain postponed GEICO 500 on Sunday.

The latest odds for the Geico 500 (Sunday, June 21st, 3:00 PM ET) at Talladega Superspeedway favor drivers like Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano. Bettors beware: many stars. 1 day ago Stocks Currencies (Forex) U.S. Cryptocurrency Coronavirus Canada Earnings Futures & Commodities ETFs & Funds Bitcoin (BTC) Tech China U.K. Gold Europe Australia Energy Tesla (TSLA) Health Wall Street Hedge Funds Fed Apple (AAPL) NYSE Ethereum (ETH) S&P 500 IPOs Japan Blockchain Moody's (MCO) Amazon (AMZN) Taxes Asia EUR USD Germany Facebook (FB.

Date: Monday, June 22, 2020
TV-Time: FOX, 3:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Talladega Superspeedway
Location: Talladega, Alabama

How Kenseth lost the 2016 Daytona 500 and gave us the closest 500 finish ever. Steve Letarte breaks down the 2016 Daytona 500 and the sequence of events that led to Matt Kenseth's ill-timed block and the closest finish in Daytona 500 history. GEICO 500 Picks & Predictions. NASCAR.com Zack Albert and Pat DeCola, of NASCAR.com. The GEICO 500 can be seen Sunday at 2 p.m. What are the betting odds for the GEICO 500? Joey Logano 8/1: Brad Keselowski 8/1: Kevin Harvick 10/1: Clint Bowyer 10/1: Denny Hamlin 10/1.

It’s Talladega Superspeedway time where a driver's true rating is diminished because of so many obstacles set before them between the car, speeds at 200 mph, attitude of the 2.66-mile high-banked track, and poor luck of being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Any driver can win as opposed to a normal race where maybe only 14 drivers have a chance.

Maybe a driver can better explain the nuances we'll see in Sunday's Geico 500.

“I have no idea,” said Kevin Harvick. “You just show up and see how it develops. All you can do is show up for a weekend at Talladega and see how it develops and go from there.”

The edges that teams have on normal tracks are wiped away at Talladega and Daytona because the cars are different. They got going too fast and had to slow down so for 30 years they used restrictor plates before going to the tapered spacer last year at Talladega. Both restrict air to the engine which reduces horsepower, although the spacer gives the driver more throttle response.

“The rules have changed, but the same racing principles apply,” Clint Bowyer said regarding his strategy for Talladega.“It’s all about finding your teammates, finding your allies.”

NASCAR Cup Odds
Talladega

• Chase Elliott +800
• Joey Logano +800
• Brad Keselowski +1000
• Denny Hamlin +1000
• Ryan Blaney +1100
• Kyle Busch +1100
• Kevin Harvick +1400
• Martin Truex Jr. +1400
• Kurt Busch +1500
• Aric Almirola +1600
• (Odds Subject to Change)

Oddsmakers adjust to Talladega

Clint Bowyer, a two-time winner at Talladega, is a 20/1 betting choice to win this week and his immediate allies to draft with are his three Stewart-Haas Racing teammates.

“You look around to see where Kevin (Harvick), Aric (Almirola) and Cole (Custer) are on the track,” Bowyer said. “Then you look around to see where the Penske and Roush guys are, plus the other Ford drivers. Those are the guys most likely to help you out.”

It’s first about the team and manufacturer, but with a few laps to go it's all about the driver trying to win and if it means a Ford driver helping or using a Chevrolet to try and win, that is the plan at that instant.

Bowyer is one of my eight bets I have on a driver to win. I like to take a couple of the favorites, a couple of drivers in the 20/1 odds range, and then a few at 30/1 or higher odds. No betting matchups because the volatility of the track reduces the edge on a side. Sportsbooks understand this as well which is why Bubba Wallace is 40/1 to win this week when he’s normally 500/1. Harvick is 14/1 this week when he’s usually the 6/1 favorite.

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook doesn’t have any driver posted in single digits (9/1 or lower) because “The Big One” wipes out favorites and longshots with equal vengeance.

I often say anyone can win, but the reality of it lately is that most of the favorites have been winning at Talladega. Some recent longshots to win? Aric Almirola was 18/1 in his 2018 win, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. was 50/1 to win in 2017, David Ragan was 60/1 to win in 2013, and Brad Keselowski was 100/1 to win in 2009 when he was driving an underfunded car for his first career Cup win.

Handicapping Manufacturers

Lately, it’s been Ford having the edge as they’ve won eight of the last nine and 11 of the last 15 at Talladega. Team Penske’s trio of drivers with Joey Logano (3), Ryan Blaney (1), and Keselowski (5) have nine Talladega wins between them.

The only Chevrolet to win in the last nine Talladega races was driven by Chase Elliott last spring.

Geico 500 Results

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“Last year worked out really well for us,” Elliott said of his win. “It was kind of one of those races where things just kind of just fell in our lap there towards the end of the race. We were super patient and just very disciplined as a group. I’m looking forward to getting back to Talladega this weekend with the Mountain Dew/Little Caesars Chevy and trying to do it all again.”

Elliott is being offered at 14/1 odds. Three-time Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin is the 10/1 co-favorite to win Sunday along with Joey Logano. Hamlin’s lone Talladega win was in 2014 and he’s taken on the role of being one of the best at getting out front on the Superspeedways. He’s got some tricks he uses and can propel his car off a side draft to gain speed better than anyone.

Hamlin is also cruising on adrenaline after winning his third race of the season Sunday at Homestead. The last time they raced on a Superspeedway they won the Daytona 500.

Keselowski is the driver I have keyed on the most for this race. He’s got everything you need when doing a checklist before firing away on him. Does he drive a Penske Ford? Check. Does he have more Talladega wins than any active driver? Check. Is his team doing well in 2020 with a new crew chief? Check. And he’s 12/1 and not even the favorite. I’m in.

I was going to bet Bowyer no matter what this week, but then I saw the paint job on the car he’ll be racing Sunday and I was sold even more. It’s the most in your face All-American car I’ve ever seen and it’s sponsored by Barstool Sports who Bowyer does a weekly podcast with Barstool owner Dave Portnoy.

“Talk about pressure,” Bowyer said with a laugh. “I’m sure I’m going to hear about it all week from Dave if we don’t run like we want to run. On the other hand, it would be fun to get a win in the Barstool Ford. Can you imagine that?”

On the hood of the red, white, and blue paint scheme, it says “back-to-back world war champs” and the side panel says “undefeated since 1776.”

GEICO 500
Top-5 Finish Prediction

1) #2 Brad Keselowski (12/1) - Bet Now at DraftKings
2) #11 Denny Hamlin (10/1) - Bet Now at DraftKings
3) #12 Ryan Blaney (14/1)
4) #10 Aric Almirola (25/1)
5) #6 Ryan Newman (30/1)

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Race: Geico 500

Date: Sunday, June 21, 2020

Track: Talladega Superspeedway

Time: 3 pm ET

Channel: FOX

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Denny Hamlin managed to take the win at Homestead after a rain/lightening-delayed start on Sunday. It was a battle with Chase Elliott for much of the night, but Hamlin prevailed, earning his 40th career victory and 3rd win at the track. He joins Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle as the other three-time winners at Homestead. It was also his third win of the season after a win at Daytona and Darlington. Hamlin led an impressive 137 of 267 laps and finished ahead of Elliott by 0.895 seconds. For Elliott, it was a matter of not being able to get through lap traffic as well as Hamlin. Ryan Blaney came in 3rd with Tyler Reddick and Aric Almirola rounding out the top 5 spots. Reddick had a heck of a charge, starting from the 24th position and driving to a top 5 finish. Almirola was in the same boat, with a P21 starting spot. Both drivers stayed consistent and confident throughout the night to bring home very respectable finishes. Kyle Busch, Austin Dillon, Christopher Bell, William Byron, and Brad Keselowski rounded out the top ten.

There were some interesting points during this race. As I mentioned before, the race was delayed by rain/lightening resulting in red-flag conditions that lasted more than two and a half hours. Ryan Blaney elaborated on the frustrations that weather cause for the drivers. Not only is it a pain to continuously get in and out of the car mentally and physically, but the delay caused track conditions to change. Ironically, I discussed in the preview that track conditions likely wouldn’t be much different than when this race was usually run in November. But as we know, it’s 2020, so of course, I was bound to be wrong, and something would change. With the nearly 3 hour delay, the drivers were racing into the night. Night racing changes the track no matter where we go. That only created a more exciting race, with the drivers having to adjust setups on their cars for conditions that weren’t expected. Another more exciting event was the birth of Austin Dillon’s son, Ace, on Sunday morning. While it was difficult for him to leave, he managed one of his best finishes of the season so far, coming home in 7th place. Good job, and congratulations to Austin!

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

This week, the drivers are heading to Talladega. Time to SHAKE AND BAKE! Sorry. I couldn’t resist. Talk about SPEED! This track is always an exciting venue to visit. It’s the longest track on the schedule. Talladega is a 2.66-mile asphalt tri-oval. The turns are all between 32 and 33 degrees of banking, with 16.5 degrees of banking in the tri-oval. The backstretch has minimal banking at just 3 degrees. With this being only the second restrictor-plate race of the season, it’s sure to get squirrely. The benefit of this weekend is that the drivers will have one practice session. It’s been several months since a practice session has occurred, so I’m sure the teams welcome this. As a fan, well, I enjoyed the no-practice races. It was more of a crap-shoot, and it seemed like the field was evened out a bit in terms of driver skill. I’ll be curious to see if having practices affects what we’ve seen with the rookie driver finishes. They’ve been doing very well. Maybe practices are giving an advantage to the bigger teams in setting up their cars to a T before the race. Maybe not. Let’s see how the tide turns this weekend.

Odds and Value Picks

Coming into Sunday’s race, there are a lot of variables to take into consideration. Tires, track position, drafting skill, friends on the track, you name it! Essentially, the driver that wins will likely have all of his ducks in a row. There will be some drivers that might be excellent on this track, but a lack of buddies at the end will surely end your birth at a win very quickly. Having

Predictions For Geico 500

drafting partners is critical here. Drivers can’t fall out of the line or lose their one or two drafting partners without pretty significant consequences. If we cannot maintain some longer green flag runs, we will see that tires will play a role in drivers being able to make some moves and passes on the track. In the shorter runs, those with fresher tires will get to the front. Historically, there have been many races lost due to tires in the last few laps of a race here, especially when it comes down to a restart with only a few laps to go. That said, let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into Talladega on Sunday:

Favorite: Joey Logano (+1000). Bet your Geico 500 picks for FREE by scoring a deposit $100 and get $100 added to your account bonus at MyBookie!

Middle of the Road: Aric Almirola (+2200)

Dark Horse: Tyler Reddick (+2200)

Reddick is on fire. A top 5 finish at Homestead is nothing to sneeze at. This kid is showing RCR that he’s in it for the long haul. He’s becoming more and more confident in his driving as the weeks go on. What I like about him is that he is confident but not pompous. He races his own race and learns from the tracks and his competitors. I really think that Reddick has a heck of a shot at Talladega. He’s never had a start in the Cup series here, but he got a win back in April of 2019 in the Xfinity series. He has some stiff competition, but he will likely be upfront if he can hang with some teammates for additional help in the draft. Aric Almirola is also another one to watch. He’s one of the only drivers to have a top 10 finish here in all of the last four races. This guy is also showing a lot of promise. While he’s been in the series for a number of years now, he’s showing that his patience with the process and his craft is starting to pay off. Almirola is also coming off a top 5 finish at Homestead, and he will carry that momentum into this weekend’s race. Logano is going to be one to watch. Although he’s had a bit of a struggle recently, Talladega will likely be a saving grace for him. He’s had a win and three top 5 finishes in the last four races at Talladega. If nothing, his teammate, Keselowski, will be his biggest help and competition all in one. The Penske drivers are a force to be reckoned with on the superspeedways, which will be no different this weekend. Throw Ryan Blaney into the mix, and well, that’s going to be a heck of a show. Talladega is sure to throw a wrench in the points if these guys put on too big of a show, so let’s see how they’re looking heading into this Sunday’s big race:

Nascar Geico 500 Predictions

NASCAR Standings:

1. Kevin Harvick (+1100)
2. Chase Elliott (+1000)
3. Joey Logano (+1000)
4. Brad Keselowski (+1000)
5. Ryan Blaney (+1100)
6. Martin Truex Jr. (+1400)
7. Denny Hamlin (+1000)
8. Alex Bowman (+2000)
9. Kyle Busch (+1100)
10. Kurt Busch (+1800)
11. Jimmie Johnson (+2200)
12. Clint Bowyer (+2200)
13. Aric Almirola (+2200)
14. Matt DiBenedetto (+4000)
15. William Byron (+2800)
16. Austin Dillon (+4000)

Interestingly enough, there wasn’t much change in the points after Homestead. Erik Jones fell out of the top 16, with Austin Dillon taking his spot. There were a few flips, but ultimately not too many drivers gained or lost a lot. This weekend, I guarantee that it will not be the case. Someone will lose due to a major wreck or two. That’s just the way that Talladega plays out. This track really doesn’t favor anyone when it comes to the consideration of wrecks. The lack of spread in the odds makes that pretty clear. There’s really no favorite. We see a kind of cluster of drivers that are favored due to history, but no clear cut winner can be made out of those odds. That’s why I’d put a big chunk down on Reddick. If he can stay clean and out of the big wrecks, this kid will have a heck of a shot. It’s really anyone’s race to win on Sunday. Stay tuned for a great afternoon of racing as we get back to the superspeedways at Talladega! For the largest array of NASCAR betting options, check out 5Dimes. See our 5Dimes Review. So many benefits to making your wagers there than elsewhere! (Discounted odds, bigger selection, faster payouts, top notch customer service).

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