In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way. Betting on politics certainly hasn’t been around for quite as long, but betting interest has exploded over the past handful of years. You can attribute the advent of the internet and the US Supreme Court’s 2018 decision to strike down the federal ban on sports betting to.

Yesterday morning, I was having a conversation with a dear friend of mine in another state. She asked me if there was a lot of betting on coronavirus situations. I replied that I thought the upcoming elections were probably generating more action.

She replied, “Isn’t it illegal to gamble on political elections in the United States?”

I’m not sure I knew, so I thought I’d do some research.

Here’s what I learned about whether you can gamble on elections in the United States:

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Want a little more info? Jump ahead and learn more about the latest election betting odds and lines.

Betting on United States Elections Isn’t a New Thing

Betting on presidential elections has a long and notorious history in the United States.

And just like the sports betting scene, the action on Presidential elections can be thought of as a marketplace.

From shortly after the Civil War until shortly after World War II, markets for betting on the presidential election were big and efficient. Not only that, but the favorites in betting markets also tended to win elections.

I’d contend that it probably hasn’t, really. It’s now more of an underground betting activity conducted with offshore sportsbooks. Previously, betting on presidential elections was an organized activity – even when it was illegal.

But we do have access to more betting opportunities than ever before. Also, modern scientific polling has replaced some of the interest in betting markets and their predictions for who’s going to be the next President of the United States.

Historically, so-called betting commissioners managed these betting markets and used standard contracts for that purpose. Sometimes you’d see more money betting on elections than were being put into action on stocks and bonds.

In the late 19^th and early 20^th century, you could get daily odds from various newspapers for at least a month before the election.

The most significant election, in terms of dollars wagered, was the election of 1916. Bettors wagered over $165 million on that contest. (Those dollars have been adjusted for inflation.)

Betting Markets Have Historically Been Good at Predicting Winners

The betting markets on elections in New York City almost always predicted an election’s winner. In fact, the market was also a good predictor of whether a vote was going to be close.

The favorite in these betting markets won almost three out of four times over 50 years. That’s even more impressive when you consider that the practice of conducting scientific polls didn’t begin until the 1930s.

Much of the historical information related to election betting markets between the end of the Civil War and the first half of the 20^th century can be found in more detail in a paper on historical prediction markets written by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf.

The conclusion so far, though, is that regardless of the legalities involved, people have been able to bet on presidential elections in the United States for a long time.

And, before polling became standard, betting markets were the de facto means of predicting election outcomes and were remarkably accurate.

Betting Political Elections Is Illegal Throughout the United States

Betting on sports used to be illegal almost everywhere, but over the last couple of years, legislation has loosened up regarding betting on sports.

People also bet on entertainment events like who’s going to win the Oscars, although that kind of betting isn’t as prevalent and isn’t legal in as many states.

This doesn’t mean it’s illegal everywhere. The United Kingdom has always been more open-minded about gambling than the United States, and bets on political events are still common there.

And some bookmakers in other countries are happy to take action from U.S. citizens regardless of the legality in the bettor’s jurisdiction.

Why Is It Illegal to Bet on Elections in the United States?

One of the concerns related to betting on sports is that it might corrupt the integrity of the sport. The Black Sox Scandal in 1919 is a classic example, although it seems to me that outlawing sports betting has done little to prevent such activity.

Everyone I know bets on sports, either with a local bookmaker, an online sportsbook, or both.

There’s a big difference, though.

With sports, the big concern is that bettors will bribe athletes to lose on purpose. In fact, countless movies have been made about boxers who were bribed to throw a match.

Think about it.

If your candidate is a massive longshot, according to the bookmakers, you might be less likely to show up and vote – ensuring that your candidate will lose.

I think this is a lousy argument for making election betting illegal, though.

Polls might easily have the same effect, but, as far as I know, no one has suggested we ban polling.

And, even though you can’t legally bet on an election in the United States, the bookmakers in other countries are still taking action. It’s easy to find out what the odds are for your favorite candidate.

I’ve been watching the gambling industry in the United States for a couple of decades now, and if I’ve learned anything, it’s this:

Changes in gambling laws happen SLOWLY.

How to Bet on the Presidential Election Anyway

First, I’m no lawyer. I don’t even play one on television. I have no idea what the legal risks are when it comes to betting on presidential elections.

But if you’re determined to bet on the presidential election anyway, I can offer some suggestions.

1. Your first option is to find a likeminded individual who’s willing to bet with you. This should be someone you know and trust who won’t stiff you. Betting with such a person eliminates the vig, which is the amount that the sportsbook charges you to place a bet.
2. Your second option is to find an online sportsbook operating from another country that’s willing to take action from a United States citizen on the election. Many such businesses exist.

As far as choosing the best political betting site is concerned, pay close attention to the bookmaker’s reputation. You’re talking about transferring money to and from a company that’s operating in an at-best grey legal area.

Such sportsbooks claim that the action they’re taking is governed by the jurisdiction where they operate. Presumably, it’s legal there to bet on such activities. United States prosecutors have a different attitude, which is why people like Calvin Ayre are hard to find.

The point is that you need to be comfortable that the book is going to pay you off if and when you win your bets. Some offshore sportsbooks are notorious for stiffing their customers.

Once you find such a sportsbook, you’ll need to find a way to get money to and from the company.

Once you’ve established an account at such a company and funded it, actually placing the bet is just a matter of finding the wager you want to make, inputting the amount you wish to wager, and pointing and clicking.

Odds on the 2020 US Presidential Election

Political Betting Website

Odds at MyBookie

• Joe Biden (-155)
• Donald Trump (+115)
• Kamala Harris (+1500)
• Mike Pence (+10000)
• Anyone Else (+35000)

Visit MyBookie

Odds at Bovada

• Joe Biden (-165)
• Donald Trump (+125)
• Kamala Harris (+7500)
• Mike Pence (+7500)

Visit Bovada

Odds at BetOnline

• Joe Biden (-180)
• Donald Trump (+160)
• Kamala Harris (+10000)
• Mike Pence (+10000)
• Jo Jorgensen (+50000)

Visit BetOnline

It’s no secret that offshore sportsbooks take action on presidential elections. I see the odds being published and updated regularly on various news sites.

So let’s look at recent odds for the presidential election at BetOnline.ag has Joe Biden at -180 and Donald Trump at +160. You could also bet on Hillary Clinton at +6000.

The -180 odds on Joe Biden mean that if you bet $180 on Biden winning, you win $100 if he wins the election.

The +160 odds on Donald Trump mean that if you bet $100 on Trump winning, you win $160 if he wins the election.

The minus sign indicates that he’s the favorite, so that’s the amount you must risk to win $100.

Hillary Clinton is clearly a longshot, so if you wager $100 on her winning, and she somehow pulls it off, you’d win $600.

Even with 60 to 1 odds, though, I think betting on Hillary is a sucker bet.

Conclusion

Sure, people have been doing so for decades.

But it isn’t legal to take action on such wagers.

Where Can I Bet On Politics Online

My advice is to obey the law, but if you want to put a little money down on the next presidential election, at least only risk money you can afford to lose – especially if you’re betting with an offshore sportsbook rather than a buddy of yours.